Most people today understand pretty well about individual technology breakthroughs like AI (Artificial Intelligence), or EVs (Electric Vehicles) or Robotics but it is perhaps less common that they stand back and really think about the truly world changing impact when these new technologies eventually converge.
History shows us time and again that meaningful technological disruption typically happens with the convergence of several new technologies and often a new business model too. The sheer transformative power of new technologies converging is therefore nothing new. If we take the example of personal computers: they were first invented in the 1970’s but it was the advent of the hard drive (by IBM), integrated circuits, and integrated computer systems that was instrumental in really turbocharging the growth of PC’s. Without these other important breakthroughs, the explosive rate of growth in the PC market wouldn’t have happened. We now know that PCs subsequently changed the world beyond recognition. Same with mobile phones. Steve Jobs first introduced the iPhone with a call to a nearby Starbucks in 2007. But without the convergence of technologies like high-speed modems and seamless roaming, the speed of success of even the iPhone would not have happened.
Today I want to tell you about a brand-new emerging industry with truly seismic potential. In Silicon Valley, it is called Taas (Transport-as-a-Service). The potential I see is not just in terms of the sector’s explosive growth prospects and humongous size of the market opportunity, but in the way it could truly reshape our daily lives. Like a lot of the modern technology we see around us, this brand-new sector has been made possible from advances in as many as 12 other enabling technologies.
So in order to understand the investment potential, let’s first look at what is currently happening in a key enabler of Taas: Electric Vehicles.
Now you may know that Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been around for a while and therefore they aren’t technically new, but what is new and what often means industries hit inflection points is the dramatic change happening in the economics. Many people do not believe that EV’s will soon make gas-powered ones obsolete but if you just stand back and look at the economics, to me, it actually seems highly likely! I’m not even talking about their greener credentials as a driver of adoption here: the fact that EVs are greener is indisputable and without doubt a key driver for most consumers but at the end of the day, demand is really turbocharged by a product’s superior economics.
Tony Seba, a Stanford economist who has done more work in this field than anyone else, has proven that EV’s are 90% cheaper to operate than gas-powered cars. And as Seba says, whenever a new technology brings about a 90% price reduction, it wins every single time.
Consumer reports estimate it costs about $15,000 to fill up a Jeep Liberty over five years if you drive just 12,000 miles a year, according to a NerdWallet article. An electric Jeep would cost $1,600 to fuel over the same period according to Seba. And the saving of close to 90% on the annual cost of fuel is only the beginning of the better economics of EVs: you see massive savings in service and maintenance costs too. As pointed out in Inside EVs, the drivetrain in a conventional car has as many as 2,000 moving parts versus fewer than 20 in an electric car! Electric cars and trucks have motors not engines, so they don’t even need gear shifts. And they don’t need oil, spark plugs, air filters, coolant, or transmission fluid. Besides replacing the tyres, there is therefore only a tiny fraction of the maintenance of running a conventional car. For this reason, while a conventional car typically lasts 150,000 to at best 200, 000 miles, there is good reason to believe electric cars could last 500,000 miles or even much more, according to Inside EVs. This is why some electric car makers are willing to give their cars up to 8 years warranty at unlimited miles. This would never be economic as an offer on a gas-powered car.
It’s instructive to look at what car manufacturers are doing as a guide to how these industry experts see the market unfolding. You can also look at what was advertised at the Super Bowl in the States this year as an important signal: every automaker used this prime advertising slot to tout their shift to EVs: Audi advertised their newest EV, Porsche ran its first Super Bowl ad in 23 years, touting its all-electric sports car, the Taycan. Even GM’s Hummer, a brand most people see as a gas-guzzler extraordinaire, advertised its new all-electric version.
As regular readers know, I believe GM should no longer be seen as a traditional auto manufacturer given the sizable ‘Rembrandts in the attic’ assets the company owns in the brand-new emerging segments of transportation like autonomous vehicles and battery production. When GM put its incredible debut EV model on the market last autumn, the entire first run sold out in 10 minutes according to NBC news. The company recently went further and made a huge announcement on their website that they fully see the future of their cars in the all-electric space. Even five years ago, all this would have seemed unthinkable coming from one of the World’s largest manufacturers of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars!
Admittedly, we are only at the very beginning of this shift to EVs. Electric cars still account for less than 3% of new car sales around the globe but a big move to mass adoption is underway simply because the economics are now hugely supportive. It’s worth mentioning that people often take a very US centric approach to judging how an industry is growing. It’s true that the adoption of EVs has been slower in the States than elsewhere globally for a variety of reasons but principally again for economic ones: fuel is much cheaper in America, so the crossover point in terms of affordability has not been as easy to reach as elsewhere. But if we look at the next largest economy (China), there are more than 400 different companies working on EVs in large part because almost every Asian nation (including India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) is planning to eventually ban the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered vehicles in the coming decade. Elsewhere, for example in Norway, more than 50% of the new cars sold today are electric and over 90% are hybrid. So adoption is happening at pace globally and auto manufacturers are in no doubt about a future where sales of EVs overtake that of ICE cars.
What is more, today the selection on offer to consumers of EVs is relatively limited – and still at the pricier end. Imagine what would happen to the growth rate with better and cheaper choices in EV’s. There is no longer any doubt that auto manufacturers are quickly shifting their business models from gas-guzzlers to EVs:
- Ford plans for one-third of its vehicles to be electric by 2030
- Volkswagen plans to sell 1 million EVs a year by 2023
- Volvo plans for half of its offerings to be electric by 2025
- Most major auto manufacturers offer at least one EV
One reason behind this growth trend is that EV’s are suddenly becoming a viable economic alternative to ICE cars. Central to this change is the collapse in price of the key pricey component in an EV: the lithium-ion battery. In fact, battery costs are down 87% since 2010. Assuming that decline continues, the total cost to produce an electric vehicle will be comparable to traditional cars in less than two years. This will eliminate the major problem with EVs: affordability. What is more, battery performance has also improved radically and continues to do so.
Some estimates are even more bullish. Bloomberg estimates that the all-important “crossover point” – when electric vehicles are cheaper to purchase than their gas-powered equivalent – will already start to happen in 2022! This means that even putting aside all the other benefits, EV’s will be actually cheaper to buy upfront than a car with a combustion engine within a year!
Against this backdrop, it’s easy to see how EV growth rates will only accelerate. They offer greater consumer choice at the same price point as conventional cars while also having better environmental credentials as well as lower running and maintenance costs.
So, despite what the naysayers believe, just looking at the numbers shows that EVs are hitting a tipping point in terms of adoption and numbers. Based on an Inside EVs article, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are going up about 60% a year… and are projected to increase by more than 700% over the next decade.
Overall, I believe that the rate of consumer adoption of EVs is going exponential globally as almost every auto manufacturer commits the future of cars to them. Apart from cost, this growth is fuelled by the incredible advances in EV technology and an explosion in the offerings of EVs. A whole host of new and very attractive all electric car models with impressive features and comparable performance are attracting lots of new car buyers. Over the past decade alone, the number of various EV models available to North American consumers has jumped from 4 to more than 60. In Europe, the number of available models is set to triple over the next few years. In total, looking at what global automakers are planning to launch in the next few years, there will be more than 200 new models available. From a consumer’s point of view, these will be the most advanced cars available, backed by the lion’s share of the advertising spend at similar cost.
The problem always with new technology is that it goes very slowly until an inflexion point is reached and it’s always based on performance and cost. We can see this phenomenon in EV’s: back in 2017 industry analysts expected the crossover point to occur in 2026, then they revised it down to 2024…and now it is in 2022! History tells us that these moves tend to accelerate rather than slow down. Of course, we may face some physical limitations we didn’t foresee (e.g. with computing power or data) but it’s clear that batteries are rapidly getting much cheaper.
Added to this positive picture is the fact that there are government incentives to purchase EVs in most major economies, this has been a huge tailwind for demand and is likely to remain that way as penalties are at the same time brought in for ICE cars with high emissions.
Canadian magazine Corporate Knights took a stab at estimating the costs involved with purchasing an EV versus a traditional car. They included a whole host of factors – including gas prices, electricity cost, annual mileage, maintenance, and repair costs, borrowing costs, and length of ownership – and concluded that even at today’s prices, the electric-powered Nissan Leaf is cheaper to own over a 10-year period than a gas-powered Honda Civic. This equation will only get better as the costs of battery technology come down further. Bloomberg estimates that EVs will account for one-third of all new vehicle sales by 2040. Research firm Statista’s estimates are even more aggressive: It predicts that gas- and diesel-powered vehicles will fall from 95% global market share in 2017 to only 52% by 2030. In other words, it expects that electric vehicles’ share will rise nearly 10-fold, from 5% to 48%, in a little more than a decade.
This change is not just about private electric cars… Retail behemoth Amazon (AMZN) and logistics giant UPS (UPS) have placed huge orders for electric delivery vans from American automaker Rivian.
In the U.S. alone, research from EVA adoption suggests that EV sales will jump nearly 700% from 2019 to 2028. The look from a global perspective over the next decade is even more impressive. We’ve seen rapid adoption of initially ‘more expensive’ technology before. Think about smartphones. The first real smartphone came onto the market with the launch of the iPhone in 2007. While it was far more expensive than traditional mobile phones at the time, the iPhone was such a huge leap forward that it almost didn’t matter. And carrier subsidies mitigated much of the cost differential anyway. Within five years, smartphones dominated the mobile market.
Similarly, EVs are a superior technology with rapidly declining prices – and are environmentally friendly to boot! As such, it is likely in my opinion that EVs could account for half of the North American and European car markets much quicker than current predictions – closer to five years than 10.
Source: General Motors
The technology I want to tell you about today is known in Silicon Valley as “TaaS,” and if you’ve never heard of it, you soon will! TaaS stands for “Transportation-as-a-Service.” And while it might not sound very high-tech, it’s possible only because of the convergence of dozens of new incredible technologies, including EVs. I believe it could completely transform our daily lives. At the heart of the sea change of transportation in Taas is the replacement of combustion cars with Autonomous (EV Self Driving) ones.
What has recently amazed me and why I decided to write about this for you is that although autonomous vehicles – or fully self-driving cars – sound like something from science fiction in the very distant future, they are in fact on our roads in large numbers right now. Believe it or not, many experts expect them to be the key means of transport before the end of the decade.
Can this be really true? The problem with the way people dismiss Taas as a crazy futuristic idea is just how many cities Taas services are already operating in today. Let’s look at the evidence. Waymo (the leading player in driverless vehicles owned by Google) have driven 10 billion miles in simulation and actually now 20 million miles on live streets. Waymo already has a ride-hailing service of 300 driverless fully self-driving cars operating in the streets of Phoenix right now. You just use the Waymo or Lyft apps to hail a driverless ride. Thousands of people are using this service every day, and Waymo has completed over 100,000 driverless rides. It isn’t hard to imagine this success will therefore quickly mean the service will be expanded all over America as well as elsewhere globally. Ark invest predicts that once Waymo expands its Phoenix fleet to 80,000 vehicles, it could address half the city’s transport needs!
GM has driverless cars on the streets of San Francisco. Lyft partnered with Motional has permission to operate completely autonomous vehicles in Nevada. Using this as a start, the partnership plans to deploy driverless taxis across multiple cities in the States by 2023. Nuro, a company specializing in driverless deliveries now has permission to operate in California and will roll out its service across the state over the next year.
Taken as a whole, autonomous vehicles are already operating in California, Florida, Arizona, Washington D.C., Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and more. For millions of people around the world, the cars that they buy today may be the last ones that they drive!
Finally, let us look at what is happening in Singapore. Starting next year, they are massively increasing the geofenced areas that their autonomous vehicles operate in. By adding the use of autonomous buses and on-demand shuttle vehicles to serve commuters in three new districts - Punggol, Tengah, and Jurong - more than half of the city will be served by autonomous vehicles.
But the future with Taas isn’t just about self-driving taxis and buses. Although it will be based on an expansion of how Uber and Lyft operate today but with fully electric driverless vehicles, you will actually be able to hail different types of vehicles for whatever you need…a small car for a quick trip, a luxury car for a long trip or a business meeting or a truck if necessary. There would be fleets of electric driverless vehicles on our streets ready to be hailed from your phone instantly. Estimates are that Taas will reduce the cost of transportation by a factor of 10 (to just 10 cents or even less per mile)! Why on earth would you therefore need to own your own car? Few would see the point of it. Today it costs about 80 cents per mile to use a gas-powered car according to the American Automobile Association. Taas would make long trips between cities for example very affordable. Let’s say owning a car costs $50k, plus $3k each year for fuel, and $1k-$4k for insurance. You could conceivably replace much of this utility with the Taas model at a fraction of this cost. By some estimates, this change has the power to save the average US family $5,600 per year. However, it will also dramatically alter the value of personal cars. This is a big deal as cars are people’s second biggest purchases (after housing).
Tass (Transport-as-a-Service), is not only a completely new business model for transportation but will also impact numerous industries and the way we live. Undoubtedly this will be hugely disruptive to the whole economy and it is clear that some sectors in particular look particularly exposed.
The impact will even be felt in terms of city tax structures. US cities like Chicago, LA, New York collect $250m, $140m $500m respectively per year in parking tickets from private motorists and most of this revenue could disappear. States and cities that heavily rely on parking fees, car taxes and traffic violations for large parts of their budgets might have to rethink completely their revenue sources.
One big sector radically changed by this brand-new industry will be the insurance sector as rapidly falling car ownership decimates the car insurance market. Most people won’t need car insurance at all. The used car market will collapse as it is just will not be economic to run a car. It’s hard not to conclude that if this scenario plays out, the biggest negative impact of all will be felt on the oil industry with drastically lower demand and lower prices. This is backed by the fact that even planes, ferries and agriculture/construction equipment are moving towards an electric future.
One tongue in cheek article described Taas as the biggest medical innovation in decades! This is obviously nothing to do with pills or treatments but everything to do with lower death rates from road traffic accidents. Why could Taas equate to the biggest medical breakthrough in history? Because 100 people die on the roads each day in the States alone. And 95% of accidents are caused by human error (usually involving speeding which autonomous vehicles won’t be able to do). The dramatic impact on healthcare costs is not just the result of a reduction in the number of lives lost in car accidents, but also in the even greater number of injuries from RTAs avoided.
Yes, there have been accidents with autonomous vehicles, but this has to be set against the much larger incidence of accidents with humans behind the wheel. For example, Waymo has driven 20m autonomous miles on real roads in the real world and has never had a single serious accident. Road traffic accident figures could plummet by 80-90% or more with Taas. Future generations will look back with horror at how we allowed so many people to die and suffer injuries from traffic accidents behind the wheel!
One of my favourite observations in investment analysis over the years is people’s natural inclination to extrapolate the continuation of the status quo. Through hundreds of thousands of years, the human brain has developed many tendencies that dominate the way we view the world. Even with all of the progress of modern society, these tendencies still have an overwhelming influence on our understanding of events.
One of the most powerful of these impulses is called “extrapolation bias.” This is a simple tendency in which the human mind takes a small number of recent events and then projects that they will continue at the same rate and direction into the future. This makes humans really bad at predicting big changes. Big changes tend to happen suddenly, but by extrapolating individual data points, our minds usually build much more gradual predictions.
The disconnect between the reality of big, rapid changes versus the expectation of gradual change can present tremendous investment opportunities.
I was reminded of this watching Tony Seba’s fascinating presentation at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York in late 2019. (you can watch it right here.)
One of Seba’s main points was that big technological changes don’t usually occur gradually, but quickly… much quicker than even the experts typically expect. For example, in 1985, leading U.S. telecommunications company AT&T (T) paid esteemed consulting firm McKinsey millions of dollars to predict how new mobile-phone technology would develop over the subsequent 15 years. After much detailed research and analysis, McKinsey predicted that there would be 900,000 mobile phone customers by the year 2000. In reality, there were more than 100 million. McKinsey’s estimate was off by a factor of more than 100!
What I find most compelling is that the adoption of autonomous self-driving vehicles in a transport as a service sector is now technologically within reach. The technology exists across the board – cameras, computers, and drive systems – to achieve full autonomy and to make this new transportation service business model a reality.
In many more places around the world, autonomous vehicles are advancing even more quickly than in the States. Even places you wouldn’t imagine like the mining industry: there are nearly 500 autonomous trucks now operating worldwide in the mining industry. China is not only the world’s fastest growing AV (Autonomous Vehicles) market, but it is also the no 1 seller of electric cars.
One statistic from Waymo sums up the accelerating speed of the change in the sector: Waymo said that it took ten years to reach 10m miles of autonomous cars on public roads, but the next 10m million miles took just one single year over the past year!
It’s perhaps surprising to realise that autonomous vehicles aren’t something in the distant future. They are here now. Yes, today they are operating in a few cities in limited ‘geofenced’ areas, but as the Singapore example shows, this is expanding rapidly. As geofenced areas are expanded, eventually the entire city then state and country are covered. In fact we already saw the first autonomous fleet crossing of the states from New York to Los Angeles.
The reason we don’t have fully autonomous cars today is due to data, equipment costs, and humans.
It’s astounding how much data we take in as we drive our cars. We make decisions large (following the hand signals of a police officer), medium (avoiding obstacles), and small (stopping at a stop sign) without even really thinking too much, using our brain and years of experience.
The first AVs lacked both the computing power and the experience. But they’re catching up in a big way. Tesla, Uber and Alphabet’s Waymo have all of their cars plugged into their data networks, ‘learning’ as they drive in the streets.
More than 1 million Teslas are on the road today, and all of them are reporting back every single piece of data they gather. As of mid-2020, that covered more than 3 billion miles of data. By 2022, it will be more than 10 billion miles. And Google’s Waymo already has more than 20 million miles of data from actual AVs driving on regular roads.
Given the continued developments in computing power and the massive amount of data gathered, it’s not hard to imagine this technology will be driving cars better than most human drivers can and much sooner than anyone imagines. Technological advancements are also solving the issues of equipment cost and size. The components needed for the automation systems in AVs are all related to electronics, optics, and data. With the exponential growth in capacity development in every one of these areas, the costs and size may fall much sooner than current expectations.
So that leaves the real obstacle: that humans fear the new and unknown. Understandably, there is a lot of distrust and uncertainty from the public about self-driving cars. The other common dismissal of the near-term prospects for autonomous driving is that the regulatory environment isn’t ready for it and that safety concerns will prohibit it. Reflecting this, will regulators be slow to permit AVs? Or impose strict restrictions? Possibly. Against this however, we see the historical reality that regulations around new technologies tend to develop fairly quickly when there is significant demonstrable cost and societal benefit. As I have explained above, AVs and the whole Taas sector can be seen as providing significant cost and health benefits to consumers.
So in my mind, it will be the human factor rather than slow deregulation which may be the key obstacle to the growth in Taas.
Overall, I see a future where transportation is a service mainly provided by fleets of autonomous vehicles. It is clear that there will be huge winners and losers from an investment perspective. Some companies will profit enormously from this change and I will talk about those more specifically in future posts.
Ark calls Taas the $10 trillion market opportunity. A study by Intel has even more staggering predictions. They say the market for driverless vehicles (including trucks, buses, and delivery vans) will eventually hit $7 trillion per year. These numbers are bigger than anything else out there and that’s really to do with the convergence of so many different trends and the sheer number of large established industries impacted.
Undoubtedly, the mass rollout of AVs and EVs will disrupt many industries, decimating some forever. As I have shown above, this isn’t some distant future, as we have the technology and the application right now happening on our streets.
Professional Driving: Nearly 4m truckers, cab drivers and chauffeurs could see their jobs disappear and replaced by AVs that can work 24/7 with fewer accidents and delays.
Auto Maintenance: As more EVs hit the road, the auto maintenance industry (demand for mechanics and many auto parts) will be decimated. No longer will you have to replace your sparkplug, oxygen sensor, catalytic converter. Auto-parts providers like AutoZone (AZO) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP) will have to adapt to the times, or they may soon cease to exist.
Auto Insurance: More than 1 million people around the world die in car crashes every year. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (“NHTSA”), 94% of accidents are due to human error. The most common cause is speeding, which accounts for more than one-quarter of traffic fatalities. Coupled with the dramatic falls in car ownership as Taas becomes a reality, car insurance companies like Geico and Progressive will likely see a collapse in premium volume and profits.
Gas Stations: the rising popularity of EVs will put many gas stations out of business. Yes, they’ll add charging stations, but if less people own cars and those that do, typically charge their cars at home every night, they won’t need to stop at gas stations nearly as often as today.
Roadside Hotels and Motels: Let’s say you’re taking a 13-hour road trip from New York City to Chicago. Instead of spending $70 on a dingy highway motel to break your trip, you can sleep soundly in your AV while it whisks you away to your destination.
Food Delivery: Over the last few years, the food-delivery business has exploded worldwide. For example, most Americans now have dozens of restaurants at their fingertips thanks to services like Grub hub, Door Dash, Uber Eats, and Postmates. These companies are all losing money because they have to pay drivers to deliver relatively low-cost items. If no drivers are needed, this will transform the economics of the sector.
Law Enforcement: AVs will be programmed to go the speed limit. They will also be programmed to park legally. That will make it very difficult for them to receive a speeding or parking ticket. This will lead to a sharp decline in revenues for cities and states, so they will have to get creative to fill the gap. Perhaps we’ll see taxes on AVs? And law enforcement with more resources to focus on bigger crimes.
Auto Manufacturers: As I noted above, car ownership will be much less common. Nearly all privately owned cars sit idle the vast majority of the time. Some estimates say that we use our cars just 4% of the time we own them. How wasteful and inefficient!
A subscription-based car service like Taas makes much more sense for the vast majority of people who live in urban and suburban areas. A few taps on your smartphone will bring an AV to your door and take you straight to your destination. We’ve already seen many city dwellers ditch their cars in favour of ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft. In the more distant future as AVs go mainstream, far fewer private cars – less than a small fraction of what are on the roads today – would be sold each year. This is why many forward looking auto manufacturers are scrambling to get a meaningful foothold in the emerging new transportation sector.
Parking Lots: there will obviously be almost no need for parking lots in prime locations, so this industry will also be decimated. One analyst estimates that the land freed up in Los Angeles alone is equal to the acreage of three San Franciscos! As Carlo Ratti, director for the MIT Senseable City Lab, predicts…
An average vehicle in the U.S. is parked for a staggering 95% of the time. Car sharing is already reducing the need for parking spaces: It has been estimated that every shared car removes between 10 and 30 privately owned cars from the street.
While the mass adoption of AVs and EVs will crush certain industries, it’s overall wonderful news for humanity. People will spend far less on transportation, boosting their disposable income. They will likely spend less time in cars – more than an hour a day for the average American currently – and what time they do spend will be restful and/or productive. The number of car accidents, injuries, and deaths (approaching 40,000 a year in the U.S.) will plunge. Emissions will decline, benefiting the environment. Overall, investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates $3.5 trillion of benefits in the U.S. from the adoption of AVs, including fewer accidents, reduced traffic congestion, and increased productivity.
Owning a car is very convenient and in many places alternatives for transportation simply do not measure up. But the truth is those cars are our biggest economic waste as we use them just 4% of the time we own them! If you look at the huge costs involved in individual car ownership, then the growth of the Taas sector could mean a lot more money in people’s pockets as they sensibly choose not to own a car themselves. Maybe only those who love the driving experience on weekends, on special roads away from the main transportation areas will continue to do so for fun. In fact 2022 is projected by some to be the year of “peak car” ownership. As this trend plays out, personal car insurance companies like Progressive and Allstate are particularly exposed. As are companies focused on repairing and servicing cars (Autozone, Midas).
What is more, prime land used for parking lots can be converted for the benefit of the community. Whatever we need locally like new offices, parks and playgrounds could replace these parking spaces. Autonomous vehicles won’t need to park nearby to where we live, they could be stored and recharged overnight further away. Did you know that approximately one third of land in some cities is occupied by parking lots? In people’s homes, many will decide to use their garage for extra living space.
Travel for the young and elderly will be much easier, safer and more affordable and the price difference between homes close to good transport links and those further away may disappear. Traffic jams will likely become a thing of the past. And drivers won’t need to worry about getting tired. In fact, they may prefer to travel overnight than fly for example since AVs will likely have fully reclining seats, just like a first-class seat on an international flight.
The wholesale change as transportation becomes a service is undoubtedly a huge investment opportunity. In the weeks ahead, I will be highlighting companies that are ideally poised to benefit from this seachange.
This material is not investment research in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote investment research independence and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research; and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results.