Examining differing approaches to the battle against Coronavirus (US/Sweden)

Hello Pynk family :kissing_heart:

Who’s been enjoying the convenience of having the news feed feature on Pynk 2.0 keeping them up to date with goings-on in the financial sector?

One of the most interesting ones from today is a comparison between the US and Sweedish stock markets in the recovery from coronavirus.

As we all no doubt know by now, both countries have had a diametrically different approach to their COVID-19 response. Sweeden opted not to lock down and simply to ask citizens to socially distance, because of this much of their workforce and schools have remained unaffected. Conversely, in the US they had a much more (some might say) draconian approach, locking down and shutting up shops and businesses.

As these two, very different approaches start to play out across the respective financial sectors, we start to see a better picture of how it is affecting each country. What do you think Pynksters?

Would you have been happy with the Sweedish approach - remember hindsight is a wonderful thing? Or are you more amenable to the lockdown approach taken by the US (and indeed, most Countries)?

What does the data tell us and what lessons are here for us considering a potential, second wave?

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My thinking Al, is that it is still too early unfortunately to establish what approach is better.

The thing I can say for sure, is that those who will pick up by chance the right approach will have a substancial margin of benefit for their economy in respect the other.

Sure! I like more the less draconian approach that Sweden took. In Italy we stayed in quarantine closed in our homes and it wasn’t sugar.

What data could we use to determine if the next wave, this fall, will be softer because many people are already slightly been touched by the virus and developed the immune system to counter it? Or maybe the virus slghtly changed again and we have to start a brand new lifestyle at least until a final solution comes out?

Very very hard to tell my friend…

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I’m not sure which approach is better. Did Sweden experience the same type of devastating CoVid numbers as the US? Our numbers are horrible. Even though we were in lockdown, many people violated the orders and continue to do so. As restrictions started to relax and businesses reopened, our CoVid spiked. Now the government is discussing whether we need a new countrywide lock down. The first wave never really ended like they predicted in the spring
Now schools are set to start back up soon. It’s still a mess here…

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Hi Tradelta,
Coronavirus is rapidly mutating, so a lot of projection is a guesswork. So far, the genotypes (types, basically) that are spreading successfully, are milder and people are less likely to die. Combined with a small but encouraging discoveries of how to tweak the treatment here and there, the loss of life is likely to be less per infection. On the other hand, the milder virus can become more infectious… so :thinking:

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I guess we can just keep on crossing our fingers for it to be so. :heart:

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Couldn’t find the Sweden/USA story you mentioned @Al_Wallace, so not quite sure what the data suggested.
Comparing the US stock markets to most other national markets is probably a little futile though. The US is massively skewed from huge injections from the FED buying directly into US company stocks, most Americans judge the economy by how well the stock markets doing. Stocks are well(for now), their economy isn’t.

Sweden’s approach to Covid-19 has been much maligned in all western media.
I would definitely prefer their model over any the rest of the World has endured!

Here’s a great link on Sweden’s model

Data on Covid-19 cases I’m very sceptical of. There’s no generic testing/accounting procedure that all data should follow. This allows for huge distortions.

The US, as an example, would you trust figures coming out of the states where hospitals are paid if they have covid cases? Medicare pay out $13,000 for positive cases, and $39,000 if ventilator care is required link.

No wonder the US is the most infected nation on Earth. It’s because it’s all bullshit.

Sweden’s GDP I think will drop around 4% this year, the US around 39%.

Which would you prefer?

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Definitely agree with this! So many businesses have shut down or filed bankruptcy due to CoVid.The massive job layoffs are hurting so many families. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

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I think that’s an understatement @KarenM :see_no_evil:.
When the US loses it’s reserve currency status the inflation the FED has caused is coming home. :scream:

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@stackem Yep, that’s because I forgot to include the link :man_facepalming:

it’s there for you now!

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@Al_Wallace as you say, in hindsight it may be easier to tell, but I agree with past comments here, is still too early to know what approach is better between lockdown and No-lockdown.

Covid responses across nations have varied a lot, I think some of the best approaches might be found in South Korea, Ghana, Vietnam, Taiwan… these countries did not enforce strict lockdowns but have had a very good testing and/or contact tracing strategy in place… and most of all, they have followed through with their strategies, which is also de case in Sweden.

The problem in the US is that they have a president with the attention span of a 3-year old, and have been all over the place with their approach against covid; pretending it wasn’t a problem and delaying action, which is still kind of happening, there is still no coordinated national response. The government hasn’t followed through on anything.

Also as @stackem mentioned, the US stock markets I don’t think are much representative of the every-day economy of their citizens, possibly GDP per capita would be a better parameter to measure this.

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Interesting Al. As we head into the second wave, the certainties like who did the ‘right thing’ in terms of response are disappearing, eg Germany and Denmark (Nb run by two amazing women of course!), were seen as having taken the right steps promptly to minimise deaths when covid appeared. Yet both countries are experiencing huge spikes and are trying to get a handle on covid again this winter. Sweden did have more deaths in the first wave but isn’t seeing the same second spike so the jury is perhaps still out on what will the overall impact of different approaches look like in the final analysis. What I would say is that as Sweden has such an export based economy, their economy was still hammered by covid despite the massive difference in their no lockdown approach. I would have imagined a bigger economic differential relative to other European countries. Plus the Swedes I know are upset that the world sees them in this irresponsible way. Although not subject to the same strict lockdown protocols, they feel most people were pretty compliant and responsible and took active steps to practice social distancing. The shocking Covid situation in the US is in my opinion affected by the lack of social safety net and the need to pay for healthcare: people are more likely to keep working when unwell and also not seek medical help for financial reasons. It may be controversial to say, but I actually feel the response to covid may have far larger negative impacts on the health of huge cohorts of the population and this was ignored in the equation, eg mental health impact on teenagers, rising cancer deaths due to lack of screening etc etc.

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