Discussion: Can we expect the approval of a fully-tested Covid-19 vaccine by 2021?

Hey Pynksters :studio_microphone:

The Covid-19 pandemic completely changed life as we know it, altering social trends, changing consumer habits and nudging companies to disrupt or be disrupted. Being unable to adapt, many companies went under, with small and medium enterprises being most at risk. Looking beyond social and economic effects, the Covid-19 pandemic claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands, now edging closer towards 1 million, with people suffering from cancer, diabetes, heart disease or obesity bearing the highest health risks. Hence, we can only wonder how and when it will end.

The prospect of an effective vaccine is on everybody’s minds. While Russia announced the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine for widespread use, the news was met with sharp criticism by experts, describing Russia’s approach as ‘reckless’ and ‘unethical’ - since phase 3 trials, essential for establishing vaccine risks and benefits, were omitted.

According to the Guardian, 139 vaccines are in pre-clinical trials, 25 are in phase 1, 15 in phase 2, and 7 in phase 3.

Under these circumstances, do you believe that a vaccine for Covid-19 will be approved before 2021?

What are your thoughts on Russia’s vaccine when it comes to health safety?

Should a Covid-19 vaccine be approved, do you expect the distribution to be symmetrical across the globe or not? Why?

Should the distribution of vaccines be asymmetrical, what economic and social measures could be taken to close the gap?

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I think the fact that there are so many vaccines past phase one is an encouraging sign. CoVid hit approximately 6 most ago, and to get to stage 3 already?! We could have a proven vaccine by the end of 2021… As far as Russia- that’s just reckless and unwise. No one can know long term affects in such a short time.
I hope once there is a proven vaccine that it is distributed globally, but will that happen? I doubt it. I think it depends on which country develops it and their relationship to other countries. Money may also be a factor, sadly.

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I agree with @KarenM. Getting so many vaccines to such a late stage in relatively little time is testament to how hard the global effort has been towards finding a cure. It’s a shame we can’t all work together like this more often, shame it takes a global pandemic to see a global alignment of goals :woman_shrugging:

Whether or not it will be distributed evenly, I think it would be fairly ludicrous to assume it would be. It will be sold to the highest bidder as with anything in the modern world and the poor will be left wanting. Sad but true.

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I think we could effectively have a fully tested and approved Covid-9 vaccine by 2021. There are many efforts(and money) put in a quick and effective development of such vaccine.

I think that maybe Russia rushed things a bit, perhaps in the spirit of being clearly the first…I see this as something possitive from the ONLY point of view of competition between countries and Icompanies…Russia ushered in … others will follow in a hurry. I can see some negative aspects as well: things done in a hurry usually are not done the right way. As Russia is gifting their vaccine to many countries right now, other countries or laboratories fearing losing “market share” to a product that we do not know if it works at 100% but is already in use…maybe those labs and countries rush the development of their own vaccine to compete that one offered by Russia.

I can see a lot of politics linked to all this matter. Russia first…USA disagree…USA will offer their vaccine and i am sure that Russia will disagree as well…Cold War renewed this time playing with people´s health :frowning:

Cuba has designed its own vaccine and i am sure that, if it works, it will be offered free of charge to many people and countries out there.

However nothing comes free, free in this life, that´s a fact. Costs involved in developing such vaccine are HUGE and somehow, the country or the lab that manages to develop the vaccine, will necessarily have to recover the investment made…so selling the vaccine will be a must in order to get funds back. The point here is how much will the final vaccine(or vaccines) cost? If developed with $ sign in mind we can bet that selling price will be huge…that depends on who will be able to reach the finish line first.

One way or another i think we will see a fully tested vaccine by 2021…

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I think a vaccine will be approved, any bets Moderna will be at the front of the queue? :roll_eyes:

Any vaccine fast tracked at the pace required now, surly has to be suspect for causing more harm than good with such short term testing. WHO’s DTP Vaccine

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I also think there will be some vaccine by end of next year.
Maybe at least for some weaker covid mutation.

That’s a mind boggling question for me. Cannot imagine not having an access to a health care.
I would guess that governments will make some effort to help their citizens. In many countries the affected people are already being monitored or known somehow, I could imagine to have some registration system in case of shortage of available vaccines. Like when we needed to apply to be in a waiting list for the surgical masks. I don’t expect that vaccines will be free of charge, but when lot of businesses have been in tourist oriented sectors (air travel, hotels, taxis, restaurants), I would expect that governments would make the vaccine available at a reasonable cost, as the low risk areas or disease free areas will attract tourists and bring money to the country.
With this assumption, tourism could help to close the gap as the cheap vacation areas are attractive to travelers and all governments want money coming in :slight_smile:

On the other hand, finding vaccine for HIV takes already more than half a century, but somehow I believe there will be some solution for covid.

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Essentially Russia has already “approved” a Covid-19 vaccine. But are we basing this on approval by WHO?

Given that there has been so much effort put into this and there are such a number of potential candidates then it is very likely that we may see an approved vaccine before 2021, though if there are setbacks this could push back into early 2021.

Personally I would have reservations about the long term health effects of a vaccine developed so quickly. There have been cases of vaccines being deemed safe and used for years before long term effects are correlated with their use.

On a separate topic I wonder what role machine learning would have on vaccine development, either Covid-19 or other diseases. I think i remember something about it being used to find potential new antibiotics.

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The graph comparing the development of vaccines with normal development and with covid is incredible.
I think that at the beginning of 2021 there will be more than one vaccine, but until it can reach the entire world population it will take a couple of years.

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Hello! Good health to all! I think that while the world critics will discuss and play for time, people will die in millions because of assumptions and limitations.
The information of Europe and America is 90% distorted and often these are fictional stories. When America announced the 2nd stage of Russian research in Russia, many more stages of research had already been passed! I really think that there is a vaccine and will be released in 2021, and it is folly to blame the vaccine of another country, while real decrease in deaths and a decrease in infected.
I think we need to stop the death of people as soon as possible!

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In reality, if we remove the stupid accusations, then the facts say that mortality in Russia is decreasing, in America there is no!
If you have a choice of death and infection thousands of people, or side effects in the form of upset stomach, which one would you choose? Your words are the thoughts of a competitor from the media, not a really worried person about people’s lives!

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I think Russia has a vaccine approved to treat COVID19. Others are in various phases of trials. It’s only a matter of time before WHO give their approval. We will surely have a fully-tested vaccine by 2021.

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I was amused by criticism of Russia releasing their vaccine for use on general population. They didn’t play by the rules, supposedly, and didn’t complete all the steps of testing. But it is their country, and their rules. Clinical trials are, after all, testing vaccines on general population, abeit a small and closely controlled one. They are basing their vaccine on the existing adenovirus (if I remember correctly) vaccines, so they are pretty sure of safety profile of the vaccine, and the only way to work out if vaccine offers full/partial/short-term/long-term immunity against this coronavirus is to observe the immune response of people exposed to it.
Their approach seems to be that stimulating even partial response to a SARS-CoV (on top of our own, innate, response to SARS-CoV, which we all have) is an additional help for the population. I do not believe that they will stop researching for new and /or improved vaccines. And we have to remember that Russian virologist have long history of working on that level - its enough to look at their bacteriophages research.

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This lady is so knowledgeable that I always learn something from her. Thanks :pray:t5:

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I can only guess that someone will come out with a vaccine during the couse of 2021…I think it’s too optimistic to say that they will make it in 2020.

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I think an effective vaccine will come out by the end of 2021. By the end of 2020 is very unlikely.

Depending on the country that develops it, we could expect how it will be distributed globally, but I find it difficult to foresee symmetrical access, there will be a lot of competition/greed related to the distribution of the vaccine.

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https://www.ft.com/content/f8ecf7b5-f8d2-4726-ba3f-233b8497b91a
Things are heating up in vaccine department but I don’t think they will fully test it out in 2020, maybe not even 2021.
I think we will have some weird combination of gradual approval and testing of vaccine like some countries are already doing.
In 2021 we will have a vaccine that is considered good enough and tested enough to be distributed it on bigger scale but it will need more work.

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So far, Sputnik V has been tested on animals and 76 people in two early stage trials. Crucially, however, Russia has yet to complete a Phase 3 trial, which entails testing it on thousands of people. This is considered an integral part of the vetting process for any vaccine.

In our country Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has emerged as an early and enthusiastic champion of Russia’s vaccine. The Southeast Asian nation plans on beginning Phase 3 trials in October. Duterte himself has pledged to be vaccinated with Sputnik V as early as May 2021.

But still, No one knows the long-term effects of this vaccine, We don’t know yet how it will impact a person’s immune status, oncology, or reproductive functions.

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Thanks for your thoughts on this matter @ematz09! And yes, i think this Russian vaccine is not fully tested yet so we cannot know beforehand the real impact it could have on human beings. I think there are political reasons behind this rush. This pandemic has released ancient misgivings between world powers like USA, China and Russia and the desire on reaching as the first one to the goal of a fully active and tested Covid19 vaccine can have a possitive impact in the development of such vaccine…as they will push to be the ones with the first worldwide accepted Covid19 vaccine on hand.

Btw…today Cuba presented to WHO and PAHO the progress of the Sovereign 01 vaccine candidate against Covid19. Official media said that this vaccine will be fully tested by January 2021 and the vaccination campaign will begin in February 2021 with more than 10 million doses for cuban people. Let’s hope it works as expected!! :pray:

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What do you think of this news?
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Yeah @KarenM…i saw this news recently and i am really happy and bullish on those good news! However we can see the political background on this one too: the distribution will take place by November 1st, two days before the presidential election…how convenient, isn’t? As said before, Russia, China, USA… they are all in a rush to be the first ones, competing even with private laboratories. Political reasons are strong enough to move mountains i guess…and with Covid19 vaccine will not be different as we all can see.

I really hope that each one of those vaccines(USA, Russia, Cuba, etc.) work at 100%…we really need a break of this pandemic. 2020 has been a nasty year… :neutral_face:

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