Could positioning ratios in currencies indicate Wisdom of Crowd?

Hello Pynksters,

It would be interesting to explore if positioning ratios of various currency pairs such as EUR/USD - which is traded by retail traders with brokers such as FXCM, Oanda, IG - would reflect similar Wisdom of Crowd than what Pynk is modelling based on predictions from the community for Bitcoin, Nasdaq and Gold.

Most brokers publish real-time positioning ratios (how many long vs how may shorts) which theoretically should reflect the sentiment of those traders and in that whether they are bullish or bearish on certain currencies.

Webbites which tried to make sense of this data shows that retail traders are generally wrong on the direction of currency movement on the long term, however, short term extremes positioning by traders indicate movement in the correct direction of the currency.

Any thoughts?

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